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There are more job openings than people searching for them. More people seem to be entering the market, but most that are gainfully employed are not looking for alternatives. Wages remain healthy, and have underpinned consumer spending. We note, though, that retail spending has softened from strong levels in past months, as many economists have been expecting. Consumers are drawing on pandemic-related savings and beginning to rely more on their credit cards for necessities and discretionary items.
For all of this trading week, stocks might be hard pressed to achieve gains. The stronger-than-expected CPI and PPI Phone Number Data numbers, along with disappointing retail sales in January, have restrained overall share-price progress. The current corporate earnings season is winding down, and decent results have helped to shore up stock valuations. Technology stocks’ price momentum has faded a bit in recent days, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have held up comparatively well. Next week, new data will roll in on leading economic indicators, initial jobless claims, Standard & Poor’s flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes, and existing home sales. Too, the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s January meeting will be released.
The central bank is closely monitoring economic trends, and will decide on the pace of possible cuts to the federal funds rate (now 5.25%-5.50%) over the coming months. Up to now, officials have guided for three one-quarter-point reductions, likely in the second half of 2024. There remains a good degree of uncertainty, economically and politically, this year. Accordingly we won’t be surprised if share-price volatility picks up. Portfolio diversification is a wise strategy in this environment. - David M. Reimer At the time of this article’s writing, the author did not have positions in any of the companies mentioned.
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發表於 16:41:05